In episode 15 of the Property Investing Journey Mike talks to property research specialist and data analyst, Kent Lardner, about the key metrics he looks to when analysing market dynamics.
With a background in data analytics and real estate, Kent is perfectly positioned to outline the key criteria he considers when identifying the property metrics within specific suburbs and regions. As founder of 3Comps Pty Limited, Kent’s comprehensive knowledge is demonstrated in the multitude of Suburbs Trends reports.
Building on earlier episodes, this conversation moves beyond key property data around yields, days on market and vacancy rates, and looks deeper into property ranking and price elasticity. Mike and Kent delve into the more complex rationale of lead indicators and consider whether there can be good reasons for some properties to lag behind.
Focussing primarily on shorter terms trends, Kent touches briefly on long term movements and the broader macroeconomic factors to be considered. With the use of clear examples and current trends, Mike and Kent’s conversation is required listening for anyone wanting to take their property knowledge and research to the next level.
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Mike talks to property research specialist and data analyst, Kent Lardner, about the key metrics he looks to when analysing market dynamics. With a background in data analytics and real estate, Kent is perfectly positioned to outline the key criteria he considers when identifying the property metrics within specific suburbs and regions. As founder of 3Comps Pty Limited, Kent’s comprehensive knowledge is demonstrated in the multitude of Suburbs Trends reports.
What we cover in this episode
- The power of data visualisation
- How to recognise independent data
- “Ugly duckling” suburbs
- Socio-Economic Indexes for Assets (SEIFA) – how it will help
- Lag indicators and the regression effect
- Price sensitivity to changes in inventory
- Kent’s theories on the current market
“If you’re buying a second hand car you’re walking around it and kicking the tyres. I do the same thing with a suburb. You look at multiple data points. You’re not just looking at one metric.“ Kent 9:49
“What you’ll find generally, is regression, you’re fitting this trend line to the broader area…if one suburb lags, it’s only a matter of time, where from a statistical perspective, it’s likely to regress back to the average. It’s likely to catch up, or catch down” Kent 10:18
“I think that’s a great lead indicator, looking at vacancy rates and looking at industry levels, both as to where they are today and where they were through time, over the last year or two“ Kent 15:03
“It’s the big economic stuff that drives long term…one of the metrics I like to look at is what did a particular market do over the last ten years, or what did it do between 2010 and 2020 in that pre-COVID era?” Kent 19:45
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